Win-Back & Reactivation Campaigns: Defining Lapsed Customers, Reactivation Rates, Offer Economics, Incrementality & Second-Life Value
Bring lost customers back profitably. You will define lapsed customers from purchase gaps, size the pool by months since last order, test offers with holdout groups, measure incremental reactivations and their cost, and estimate how long reactivated customers stay and what they are worth, with every cell checked as you go.
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About this course
In this course you plan win-back campaigns for a fictional online shop. You turn last-order dates into days since the last order, set a lapse threshold per category and count the lapsed pool with COUNTIFS. You read a lapse curve and find the point of no return, build a recency × value grid, and price offers by discount per order, margin after discount and break-even reactivation rate. With holdout groups you measure incremental reactivations, cost per incremental customer and the share who would have come back anyway, compare channels with SUMPRODUCT, value a customer's second life with POWER and build a programme plan with ROI and a chart.
Lessons
- Defining Lapsed Customers: Days Since the Last Order, a Threshold per Category and the Size of the Lapsed Pool Pro
- Lapse Curves: Monthly Return Rates, the Cumulative Share Coming Back and the Point of No Return Pro
- Segments for Win-Back: Recency Bands × Past Value with COUNTIFS, Segment Labels and the Priority Segment Pro
- Offer Economics: Discount Cost per Order, Margin After the Offer, Break-Even Reactivation Rate and Profit per 1,000 Contacts Pro
- Holdout Tests: Incremental Reactivation Rate, Incremental Customers, Cost per Incremental Customer and Paid-Anyway Share Pro
- Channel Mix: Cost per Incremental Reactivation by Channel, Plan Cost, Blended Cost and a Reach Check Pro
- Second-Life Value: Retention of Reactivated vs New Customers, a Simple Decay with POWER and the Maximum Win-Back Cost Pro
- Programme Plan & Dashboard: Monthly Lapsing Pipeline, Incremental Reactivations, Total Cost, ROI and a Chart Pro