Work Breakdown & Three-Point (PERT) Estimates
All lessons
- Work Breakdown & Three-Point (PERT) EstimatesFree
- Schedule Dates with WORKDAY & Dependencies Pro
- Critical Path: Forward Pass, Backward Pass & Slack Pro
- Resource Loading, Cost Budget & the S-Curve Pro
- Earned Value: PV, EV, AC, Variances & Indices Pro
- Forecasting with Earned Value: EAC, ETC, VAC & TCPI Pro
- Risk Register: Scoring, Expected Monetary Value & Ranking Pro
- Status Report KPIs & RAG Status with IFS Pro
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Why not just use the most likely value?
Tasks can overrun far more than they can underrun, so the pessimistic tail is longer. PERT pulls the estimate towards that tail: for the front-end build, M is 15 days but the PERT estimate is 16. Summed over a whole project, ignoring the tail is the classic reason for late delivery.
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