Subscription Box Economics: Box COGS, Churn by Cohort, CAC Payback & Skip Rates
Build the cost stack of one box, value the plan mix, read cohort churn and the first-box cliff, price skips and pauses, pay back CAC, value subscribers by plan, forecast next month's inventory and test first-box discounts, with every cell checked as you go.
The first lesson is free — no account needed.
About this course
A subscription box economics course that runs one fictional monthly tea, coffee and snack box, Kettlecrate, in a spreadsheet, for subscription box founders, e-commerce managers, growth marketers and business students. You build the cost stack of one box from COGS, packaging, pick and pack, shipping and payment fees and find the boxes that cover fixed costs, value a mix of monthly and 3-, 6- and 12-month prepaid plans, turn six sign-up cohorts into a retention triangle and see the first-box cliff, measure the revenue lost to skips and pauses, calculate CAC by channel and the payback with and without churn, value a subscriber on each plan as a discounted, churn-adjusted lifetime value, forecast next month's boxes and purchase orders in full cases, and test which first-box discount leaves the most profit. Fictional company and illustrative numbers. Not financial advice. The first lab is free.
Lessons
- Box Contribution: COGS, Packaging, Pick & Pack, Shipping and Payment FeesFree
- Plan Mix: Monthly vs 3-, 6- and 12-Month Prepaid and the Average Revenue per Box Pro
- Cohort Retention and Churn by Month: The First-Box Cliff Pro
- Skip and Pause Rates: The Revenue You Do Not Bill Pro
- CAC by Channel and Payback Months, With and Without Churn Pro
- Lifetime Value by Plan: Discounted, Churn-Adjusted and Capped Pro
- Inventory Forecast: Next Month's Boxes from Active Subscribers and Expected Churn Pro
- First-Box Discounts: More Sign-ups, Weaker Retention, Which Offer Wins? Pro