Pharma & Biotech Valuation: Risk-Adjusted NPV, Phase Probabilities & Peak Sales
Value a fictional drug candidate like a biotech analyst: chain phase probabilities, schedule development costs, build peak sales and the LOE curve, then go from unrisked NPV to rNPV, licensing deals and a pipeline, in 8 graded labs.
The first lesson is free — no account needed.
About this course
A pharma and biotech valuation course that values one fictional drug candidate the way biotech analysts and business development teams do, in a spreadsheet, for equity analysts, biotech BD and finance staff, life science investors and students. You chain phase-transition probabilities into the cumulative probability of success and the likelihood of approval, spread phase budgets over six years with one copyable IF formula, build peak sales bottom-up from the patient funnel, share, net price and compliance, turn them into a 14-year sales curve with ramp-up, plateau and the loss-of-exclusivity cliff, discount the success case to an unrisked NPV, weight every year's cash flow by the probability of getting there for the risk-adjusted NPV, value a licensing deal with upfront, milestones and royalties from both sides and test a four-asset pipeline. Illustrative probabilities and figures, educational only, not investment advice. The first lab is free.
Lessons
- Cumulative Probability of Success by PhaseFree
- Development Cost Schedule by Phase and Year Pro
- Peak Sales Build: Patients × Share × Price × Compliance Pro
- Sales Ramp & the Loss-of-Exclusivity Cliff Pro
- Unrisked NPV: Discounting the Success Case Pro
- Risk-Adjusted NPV: Every Cash Flow × the Probability of Getting There Pro
- Licensing Deals: Upfront, Milestones, Royalties & Both Sides' rNPV Pro
- Pipeline Portfolio & Sensitivity of the rNPV Pro