Market Sizing & Launch Forecasts: TAM, SAM, SOM, Adoption Curves & Bottom-Up Sales Plans
Size a market and forecast a launch: segment-based TAM, SAM and SOM, bottom-up plans, adoption curves and the assumptions that matter most, with every cell checked as you go.
One-time payment · lifetime access · lessons, labs, exam and certificate included · no subscription.
About this course
In this course you size a market and forecast a product launch for a fictional smart-home company, with every cell checked. You build a segment-based TAM with SUMPRODUCT, cut it down to SAM with scope flags and channel reach, and grow a SOM with a capture-share ramp. You build a bottom-up B2B plan from accounts, deal sizes, win rates and ramp, and reconcile it with the top-down number. Then you model adoption with a logistic S-curve and a diffusion model with innovation and imitation, find the peak year, chain a launch funnel into units, compare low, base and high revenue scenarios and rank the assumptions in a sensitivity tornado.
Lessons
- Segment-Based TAM: Units × Spend by Segment and Region Pro
- SAM & SOM: Reachable Market, Capture Share and a Five-Year Ramp Pro
- Bottom-Up Sales Plan: Accounts × Deal × Win Rate × Ramp Pro
- S-Curve Adoption: Logistic Share, Households and Adopter Groups Pro
- Diffusion Model: Innovation p, Imitation q and the Peak Year Pro
- Launch Funnel: Awareness, Consideration, Trial & Repeat Units Pro
- Revenue Scenarios: Price Erosion, Competitor Entry, Low–Base–High Pro
- Sensitivity Tornado: Which Assumption Moves the Forecast Most? Pro