Litigation Funding by the Numbers: Case Budgets, Stage Probabilities, Expected Recoveries, Funder Return Structures, Proceeds Waterfalls, Duration & IRR and Case Portfolios
Look at a legal claim the way a third-party funder does. You will budget a case by stage, turn given stage probabilities into outcome odds, value expected recoveries after collection risk, compare multiple-based and percentage-based returns, split proceeds in a waterfall, measure IRR and multiples by outcome and build a small case portfolio, with every cell checked as you go.
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About this course
This course looks at a fictional legal claim the way a third-party funder does, step by step in a spreadsheet. You build a case budget by stage with cumulative commitment and drawdowns, chain given stage probabilities into settled, lost and won endings and calculate the expected spend. You value expected recoveries after a collection haircut, compare multiple-based, percentage-based, greater-of and time-ratchet payouts, and run a proceeds waterfall with a lawyer uplift and a claimant floor. You measure IRR and MOIC on half-year cash flows, price adverse-costs cover and finish with a 12-case portfolio. All cases and numbers are fictional; not legal or investment advice.
Lessons
- The Case Budget: Costs by Stage, Commitment and Drawdowns Pro
- Stage Probabilities: From Given Stage Probabilities to End Outcomes and Expected Spend Pro
- Expected Recovery: Claim Value, Collection Haircuts and the Outcome Table Pro
- Funder Return Structures: Multiples, Percentages, the Greater-of Rule and Time Ratchets Pro
- The Proceeds Waterfall: Capital Back, Lawyer Uplift, Funder Profit and the Claimant Floor Pro
- Duration, IRR and MOIC: Same Case, Different Clocks Pro
- Adverse Costs and Cover: Loser-Pays Exposure, Deferred and Upfront Premiums Pro
- Capstone – A Portfolio of 12 Cases: Expected MOIC, Concentration, Loss Rate and Cross-Collateralisation Pro