Epidemic Modeling: SIR Models, R0 & Herd Immunity in Excel
Growth rates and doubling times, R0 from the generation interval, an SIR model with daily Euler steps, peak and final size, herd immunity and vaccination coverage, interventions, the SEIR extension and a first model fit: build the classic epidemic models in a live spreadsheet that checks every cell. Synthetic data, educational only, not public-health guidance.
The first lesson is free — no account needed.
About this course
An epidemic modeling course that builds the classic compartmental models for one fictional town in a spreadsheet, for epidemiology, public health and math students, analysts and anyone who wants to read an epidemic curve. You fit the exponential growth rate of two weeks of case counts with LN and SLOPE and turn it into a doubling time, estimate R0 from the growth rate under three generation-interval assumptions, write the daily Euler steps of a 150-day SIR model and chart S, I and R, read the peak day, peak size and final attack rate, calculate herd immunity thresholds and the vaccination coverage an imperfect vaccine needs, cut the transmission rate β from a start day to flatten the curve, add a latent period with SEIR and pick the best β by the sum of squared errors against observed cases. Synthetic data, educational only, not public-health guidance. The first lab is free.
Lessons
- Growth Rate & Doubling Time from Case Counts (LN + SLOPE)Free
- From Growth Rate to R0: Generation-Interval Approximations Pro
- The SIR Model with Euler Steps: S, I, R Day by Day Pro
- Peak Timing, Peak Size & Final Size Pro
- Herd Immunity Threshold & the Vaccination Coverage Needed Pro
- Effect of Interventions: Cutting β and Flattening the Curve Pro
- SEIR: Adding a Latent Period Pro
- Fitting the Model to Data: SSE for a Few β Values Pro