Election Night Analytics: Turnout, Vote Shares, Swing, Seat Projections & Disproportionality
Analyse a fictional election like a results desk: turnout by district, vote shares, swing since last time, uniform-swing seat projections, marginal seats and how far seats differ from votes, with every cell checked as you go.
One-time payment · lifetime access · lessons, labs, exam and certificate included · no subscription.
About this course
In this course you work on the results desk of a fictional newspaper and analyse a fictional regional election in a spreadsheet, with every cell checked. You calculate valid votes, turnout per district and the overall turnout, then find winners, runners-up and majorities with INDEX, MATCH and LARGE. You measure share changes in percentage points and the two-party swing, build a target list of marginal seats with the swing needed to flip them, and project seats with a uniform swing. You read partial results without the reporting bias, compare seat shares with vote shares in a least-squares disproportionality index and finish with a results dashboard and chart.
Lessons
- Turnout: Ballots Cast, Valid Votes, District Rankings & the Overall Rate Pro
- Vote Shares & Winners: Who Won, by How Much, and Who Came Second Pro
- Change Since Last Time: Share Changes in Points and the Two-Party Swing Pro
- Marginal Seats: Margins, the Swing Needed to Flip and the Target List Pro
- Uniform Swing: Applying a National Change to Every District and Projecting Seats Pro
- Partial Results: Reporting Bias, Weighted Changes and a Projected Final Share Pro
- Votes vs Seats: Seat Shares, Bonuses and Penalties and the Disproportionality Index Pro
- Capstone: The Results Dashboard – Seat Totals, Gains, the Biggest Swing and a Chart Pro