Markov Chains in Spreadsheets: Transition Matrices, Steady States & Board Games
Turn weather records into a transition matrix, raise it to powers with MMULT, solve the steady state with MINVERSE, use the fundamental matrix for absorbing chains, compute gambler's-ruin odds, build a snakes-and-ladders matrix from dice rolls, project brand market shares with a chart and compare a simulation with the exact answer: 8 graded labs.
The first lesson is free — no account needed.
About this course
A Markov chains course that builds every chain as a matrix in a spreadsheet, for maths and statistics students, operations research and data science learners, actuarial and quant interview candidates and board game fans. You turn a year of weather records for a fictional coastal town into a transition matrix whose rows sum to 1, raise it to powers with MMULT and watch the rows converge, solve the steady state exactly with MINVERSE, split a student-progression chain into Q and R and use the fundamental matrix for expected steps and absorption probabilities, compute gambler's ruin odds for every bankroll, build a snakes-and-ladders matrix from dice rolls and find the expected number of rolls to finish, project brand market shares to their long-run values with a chart, and compare 80 simulated days with the exact answer. Fictional data, educational only. The first lab is free.
Lessons
- States & the Transition Matrix: Weather Records to Probabilities that Sum to 1Free
- n-Step Probabilities: Matrix Powers P², P⁴, P⁸ with MMULT Pro
- Steady State: Iterate to Convergence, then Solve Exactly with MINVERSE Pro
- Absorbing Chains: the Fundamental Matrix, Expected Steps & Absorption Probabilities Pro
- Gambler's Ruin: Probability of Reaching a Target before Going Broke Pro
- Snakes & Ladders: a Transition Matrix from Dice Rolls and the Expected Game Length Pro
- Brand Switching: Monthly Market Shares and the Long-Run Share (with a Chart) Pro
- Simulation vs Exact: 80 Simulated Days against the Steady State (with a Chart) Pro